How OC housing is fueling recovering from great recession

	Shan Roberts - Broker of the OC Homefinder Team
	You got to love Orange County! We live in one of the greatest areas in the nation. Our homes sells are up, and our local business markets are strong. I like to hear what you think share your thoughts at my blog.  OCHomefinderTeam@blogspot.com
Orange County is leading the state and the nation in the recovery from the Great Recession, buoyed by a real housing bounce-back. But jobs have been slower to return, though the county's unemployment rate of 6.5 percent remains below that of both the state and the nation as a whole. That's the conclusion of Economists from the Mihaylo College of Business and Economics at Cal State Fullerton, who took to the stage of the Hyatt Regency in Irvine on Thursday to present their 2013 midyear economic forecast.     How did Orange County do it?  Overall, California and Los Angeles have been recovering faster than the nation as a whole. But Orange County has been a true standout performer. Housing is driving Orange County's robust pace of improvement. Typically, economists expect housing to lead the national, state and regional economy out of recessions. That hasn't happened with the Great Recession because the housing bubble got so large. When it popped, the market collapsed. But the OC is now posting housing growth data that more closely resembles a bounce-back from a typical recession. After bottoming out in 2008, Orange County housing prices stabilized in mid-2012, according to the Fullerton economists. Since then, prices have risen steadily, and are now up 30 percent from their lows. The outlook is for annual price appreciation of 7-10 percent. Jobs have been slower to come back. Orange County's unemployment rate has generally been around 4 percent and has on occasion dipped below that, said Anil Puri, Dean of Mihaylo. The OC almost always had unemployment rates lower than the national rate. But during the Great Recession, Orange County's unemployment rate shot above the national level, topping out at 9.9 percent in January 2010 (the U.S. employment rate rose above 10 percent after the financial crisis, but in January 2010 was down to 9.7 percent). Now, the housing recovery has improved the employment picture to some degree. In February, unemployment in Orange County came in at 6.5 percent, significantly lower than both the national rate of 7.6 and the California rate of 9.6 percent. Puri thinks that OC's unemployment rate could eventually get back to pre-recession levels, but he added that it's going to take three to five years. The OC's not completely out of the woods. While the housing market is recovering, there's a shortage of houses to buy at all price points, and especially under $500,000. That's pushing prices higher — a common story now throughout California.  Still, OC is on its way to recovery from the Great Recession.

Eminent Domain Plan to save underwater home owners

 

Shan Roberts - Broker of the OC Homefinder Team

USA Today and a few other news sources have been talking about a trick for the city to use its power of eminent domain to take properties that are about to be foreclosed and allow the owners to buy back the homes from the city. Sounds like a great deal for the home owners, but the long term results can be devastating to the industry. I like to hear what you think share your thoughts at my blog.  OCHomefinderTeam@blogspot.com

The Green Party mayor of Richmond, Calif., has a plan to help underwater homeowners in her city get more affordable mortgages. And she's got the financial industry in a tizzy. RICHMOND, Calif. — Gayle McLaughlin looks and sounds like the former school teacher and data entry worker she was — down to her sensible brown walking shoes. What the 5-foot-4-inch mayor of this working-class San Francisco Bay Area city does not resemble is the ready-to-march, dogged corporate thorn she is. Her latest opponent? Wall Street. McLaughlin, a member of the leftist Green Party, is leading a novel effort by the city to buy 624 underwater mortgages in Richmond, pay the investor-owners some of what they're owed and set the homeowner up with a new mortgage closer to the home's current value. If investors don't sell, the city says it may use its eminent domain powers to seize the mortgages at fair market value. The idea is to prevent foreclosures, which cause blight, and help homeowners still stuck with mortgage loans far greater than their home's value, McLaughlin says. "People were tricked. They were sold these bad loans. This is a question — for me — of a community being victimized," says McLaughlin, 61, a longtime renter who "owned a trailer once." Richmond's threat to use its eminent-domain powers, which allow governments to take private property for public use, has unleashed a torrent of opposition. Banks, government regulators, mortgage bankers, Realtors, investors and land title companies say the plan is unconstitutional, will shortchange investors who own the mortgages, including pension funds and threaten mortgage lending and property rights. "If investors get ripped off today, why would they put capital to work tomorrow?" says Tom Deutsch, CEO of the American Securitization Forum, whose members include issuers and investors in mortgage-backed securities. If any city does it, "It'll set the precedent nationwide," he says. Richmond, a city of 105,000 that is 70% minority, was hit hard in the housing bust. Home values tanked 66% from their peak in 2006 to a median of $156,000 at the end of 2011, Zillow data show. That's led to thousands of foreclosures and millions of dollars in lost property tax revenue, McLaughlin says. Home prices have climbed back to a median of $218,000, but four of 10 mortgaged homes are still underwater. Many of those are at risk of foreclosure, McLaughlin says. Last month, she marched with other protesters to Wells Fargo's headquarters in San Francisco in support of the plan. "It is not an option to stand on the sidelines, waiting for the next wave of foreclosures," McLaughlin says. "We are going to stand up to Wall Street." NO STRANGER TO POLITICAL FIGHTS The second-term mayor, whose career in government started as a Richmond City Council member in 2004, is accustomed to tough fights. Growing up in Chicago, she was the third of five daughters born to a union-carpenter father and a factory-worker mother. She's spent decades on the other side of the powers that be — opposing the Vietnam War, supporting the Central American solidarity movement and numerous environmental causes. In her 2010 mayoral race, she survived an attack by the city's police and fire unions that exposed an earlier, unsuccessful attempt to shed personal debts by filing for bankruptcy. McLaughlin says the "smear" campaign backfired, and voters identified with her ability to overcome financial challenges. McLaughlin has also repeatedly clashed with Chevron, the city's biggest employer. Last month, the city sued Chevron, alleging that a 2012 fire at the local refinery reflected "years of neglect." The suit asks for financial compensation for economic damages and punitive ones to deter similar future conduct. Chevron, which agreed to pay the county $2 million stemming from the fire, says the lawsuit is a "wrongheaded attempt" to take advantage of the refinery fire. McLaughlin expects it to force Chevron to "change its corporate culture so our community can be safe." A MESSAGE FROM WALL STREET? Not everybody applauds McLaughlin's tactics. "You don't bite the hand that feeds you. … You sit down with them," says Richmond City Councilman Nathaniel Bates, a frequent McLaughlin opponent. He says Chevron is working hard to modernize a 111-year-old plant that predates the city. The use of eminent domain won't hurt Wall Street as much as it'll hurt Richmond, Bates says. He fears that investors won't buy Richmond's bonds if the city proceeds. Richmond may have gotten such a warning shot last month when it failed to find takers for a $34 million bond offering. The city also isn't offering enough for the mortgages, Deutsch says. For the 624 home loans, Richmond offered a "fair market value" that averages 52% of what's owed, shows an analysis by independent consulting firm PF2 Securities Evaluations. Of the loans, 444 of them are current. The median balance owed is about $380,000. The city may take control of the mortgages by eminent domain if investors don't agree to sell, though it would still have to compensate them. "It's kind of like an offer you can't refuse … a Godfather-like thing," says Richmond Realtor Jeffrey Wright, who also opposes the plan. He says the issue is less about preventing blight — especially since some of the homes would quickly re-sell if foreclosed on — and more about the mayor's politics. "It's a social justice crusade," Wright says. "From the mayor's perspective, the banks have done the people wrong." Here's how the plan would work. Assume a house has a $300,000 mortgage. The city might argue its current value is only $160,000. If a judge agreed, the city would use funds from investment firm Mortgage Resolution Partners to buy the loan. The homeowner would refinance into a new loan, perhaps for $190,000. Those funds would pay off the city. The $30,000 difference between what the city paid, and what it got, would be split among MRP, its investors and the city. The plan's implementation is far from certain. After an eight-hour city council meeting earlier this month, the council narrowly approved McLaughlin's proposal to take the next step with the plan and try draw in more cities. The council will have to vote again to actually seize loans and get a "yes" vote from one of the members who voted "no" at the last meeting. If the city seizes a loan, "There would be an immediate court challenge," Deutsch says. What's more, if sellers aren't willing to sell, the courts would have to determine fair pricing for the mortgages. Investors already filed suit against the plan once. A federal judge said the claims were not yet "ripe" because Richmond hadn't actually done anything yet. A handful of other cities are considering the same strategy as Richmond's, but it's taken the idea the furthest, says Cornell University law professor Robert Hockett, a chief proponent. Others have backed off. Those include North Las Vegas, Chicago and San Bernardino County in California, where opposition was also strong. Richmond has enlisted more grass-roots support than those other places, supporters say, including from the Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment. What else is different about Richmond? "The mayor," Deutsch says.

OC Home prices gains to taper

I ran across this article today in the OC Register. The title of the article sounds scary at first, but really is good news. I believe slow steady growth is what we want in our housing market. We all seen what can happen when our markets jump to sharply. 

Love to hear all your thoughts on it

OC Home prices gains to taper

California home prices and sales are expected to continue rising next year, but price gains will be more modest as a more traditional market takes hold, according to the California Association of Realtors' 2014 housing forecast.

The 2014 median house price house is projected to rise to $432,800 statewide, up 6 percent from this year's expected all-year median of $408,600.

By comparison, this year's single-family home median is expected to end the year up 28 percent from 2012 levels, according to the forecast.

Realtor economists also project that California home sales will rise 3.2 percent in 2014 to 444,000 sales, the most homes sold in eight years. The 2013 sales tally is expected to fall about 2 percent short of 2012 levels.

“The housing market continues to be one of, if not the, brightest spots in the economy,” said association Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.

She cited a “shift in the tenor” of the market away from foreclosures, short sales and other distressed transactions and back to “equity” or “retail” home sales.

For example, bank-owned homes, which accounted for 60 percent of home sales in 2009, represented just 3 percent in August, Appleton-Young said. Short sales have fallen to 10 percent of transactions. At the same time, sales of non-distressed homes went from 31 percent of sales in 2009 to 86 percent in August.

“This is a year where the traditional market dominates,” Appleton-Young said.

Mortgage rates also are on the rise. The association predicted that the interest rate on a traditional 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage will increase to 5.3 percent next year, up from an average of 4.1 percent in 2013. For a median-priced home, that increase amounts to a $236 increase in monthly mortgage payments.

Appleton-Young also cited data showing that foreign buyers accounted for 8 percent of sales in a Realtor survey earlier this year, the highest level in the annual survey's 35-year history. Foreign buyers see real estate in the San Francisco Bay area and parts of Los Angeles as ideal havens for their money. “This is a phenomenon that will only continue to grow,” she said.

Appleton-Young, however, said the overall economic recovery remains sluggish. The gross domestic product and job growth are subpar. She worries about the Federal Reserve's effort to taper its “quantitative easing” program of purchasing mortgage securities and the uncertainty caused by the federal government shutdown.

“There are lots of cyclical challenges and structural challenges facing our economy,” she said. “There's a lot of collateral damage to work through.”